How Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has warned to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called the US president who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Tommy Aguirre
Tommy Aguirre

Lena Weber is a seasoned journalist and blogger based in Berlin, focusing on German politics and social trends with a passion for storytelling.